And there's so much disinformation that when people try to actually figure it out, they just get a, they get a information overwhelm, and then it's very hard for them to continue. And that was the beginning of a curve that has, you know, started to verticalized exponentially recently. standard evolutionary and economic environments based on scarcity and rivalrous goods). Daniel Schmachtenberger 2:13:16 And so I want you to think certain things, were you thinking those things, I think will advantage me. Daniel Schmachtenberger 1:13:37 Sure, there are naysayers but I say that America's greatest days are in front of her. I think that's actually one of the meaningful dynamics in institutional decay. There are people who say we need divergent ideas and heterodox ideas, but that don't have grounded clear thinking and You know, critical thinking and I think, for you to bring heterodox thinkers and have, but not just agree with them, but have real dialectic conversation that is earnestly seeking to bring about better understanding is beautiful. What's happened is is that it's been too easy to pick off the initial adopters. And I have to say the least fun part. player = new YT.Player('player', { We also don't want an arms race on bio weapons or nanotech. Daniel Schmachtenberger 2:30:21 And in some other portion of my world, it's like, Well, clearly we're on the verge of AGI. And we can afford to push on all of these things principle among those things is, we should be using development for something radically different and studying cultures, which have an intrinsically sort of non rival risk ethos to them to see what we already been able to do. Right? Yeah. ", "Vectoring towards omni-win-win means making an omni-win-win choice whenever possible, and when not, making the choice closest to omni-win-win, that increases omni-win-win choice potential in the future.". Eric Weinstein 1:49:04 And so if we're talking about limited amount of oceanfront, then this is where we say, Well, can we do seasteading and create a lot of ocean front that is really awesome. In fact, Dr. Peter T. His most recent video evidence is some of this confusion where he shares that as a physician, he feels so spun around by what he is hearing that even he is forced to think in political Rather than medical or scientific terms to explain the situation. This category only includes cookies that ensures basic functionalities and security features of the website. He said, it wasn't even fun for 15 minutes. I think that the human condition can do both of those. But everybody is doing that. There's just, you know, like, you know, Bob Trevor's work on Parent Child conflict. Eric's been taught self restraint. Makes and estimates of the demand for mechanical ventilation in the United States during an influenza pandemic in 2017, and 2015, respectively. Like a physical warfare, right? I think that there is a mystery here that if we don't make eye contact with it, it's gonna dog the conversation. Daniel Schmachtenberger 52:15 The system, which is self perpetuating, is not itself animate or sentience. So I don't have priors. . that sounds to me like TripAdvisor, where I traveled to some country, and I've never been to, and I'm never going back again. out fear, uncertainty and doubt, which is the, you know, Fudd is the major tool for destroying an individual's ability to communicate reality. And then you wait for the collapse to come. But it's very hard to make laws to bind these things. So even though the system is an animate the people People who are doing well edit or animate. grimace. What you're really saying is, we are blind to the effect that somatic pleasure and status pleasure is crowding out fulfilment in our lives and that were we to actually understand the cost of pleasure of rivalry that there is an individual reason to abandon somatic pleasure as the be all and end all how we how we Grade A life. So my guess is that even if I guessed wrong again, we could get another 50 years out of it sooner or later, either something like what you're talking about a change in the basic structure of rival risks into interaction. I refer to the collective as the looting Party and the looting party, the neoliberals, the neoconservatives sort of intergenerational warfare within the country in the US My take on it is that the common ideology is that Prophet had to be found abroad. And I would argue that this is partly why we have such a long period of miani. Yeah, okay. The depth of our appreciation of the beauty of the world increases the meaningfulness of the world. So my, my point is that you said you were trying to indicate that you could just keep changing your environment, like your clothing becomes a microclimate so that you're able to become the, the polar bear is no longer the apex apex predator of the Arctic, right. Right. The fact that you shared experiences from your childhoods and lives . I'm not aware of any major game theoretic advance in what you're calling multipolar traps. 01:34:07 - How sound thinking is derailed: Profits vs. gating, 01:37:42 - An economy of shame and terror, 01:40:39 - The Looting Party origins of FUD (fear, uncertainty and distortion), 01:50:10 - Penetration options: Scaling beyond the Dunbar size, 02:00:22 - Tech as a gamechanger in evolution, 02:02:55 - Abstraction as crucial for evolution in hoomans, 02:05:30 - Selection pressures as an eualizer between species, 02:08:45 - Abstraction and toolmaking breaks the even distribution, 02:13:00 - Solutions: Abstract pattern replicators (software updates), 02:14:48 - Neoteny [retarding maturation] and nurture capacity in hoomans, 02:17:00 - Buddhism and the lack of violence. Human nature can be conditioned to do both of those. And I can't actually in a closed loop materials economy that is near the carrying capacity, I can't keep growing the goods and services indefinitely. So, that is counter to the narrative that we're all seeking maximum status and in competition with each other for. 'end': 99999999, Well, then that system can export solutions that other places in the world that would normally have an enmity relationship with it actually need that they can't solve for themselves. And I do think that rivalry in a world of exponential tech does self terminate. This website uses cookies to improve your experience while you navigate through the website. 00:18:27 - System validity gain vs. loss as a distributed local criteria for response. And there's something like a hard fork where if we keep doing anything similar to that it'll come to an end cumulatively, whether existential or catastrophic, more likely, catastrophic, right? And then we can engineer on top of that, atoms is different than bits, atoms have a some somewhat finite field to them, bits fields effectively infinite. As this is our second episode to be released during a bizarre and near global patchwork of local quarantines. Eric Weinstein 3:21:00 Imagine that all of the rate limiting resources for efficient ICU treatment were suddenly parachuted out on pallets from helicopters all over the world. Thank you so much nora bateson and Daniel Schmachtenberger for your beautiful conversation on learning how to be in the world. And so the same is true with ethical issues, right? is an emergent property of this thing. Right, and the people who are really engaged and how to make more powerful breakthroughs in science and tech, are usually engaged in some creative enterprise where they're not oriented to blow things up. I wish that it could have communicated clearer having had better sleep last night, but hopefully it wasn't completely unintelligible. So you and Peter, were talking the other day about the need for ongoing just a Peter. I just, I hear that voice. And then they're like, Well, why the fuck are you figuring out these pieces of tech? Okay. People are very competent, and they're long standing rivalries and hatreds. } Eric Weinstein 1:00:41 Well, I have to have a sense making system that can factor things like externalities ahead of time better. And we just thought about and we said, we're still developing better weapons and we're developing better economic extraction tools. Daniel Schmachtenberger 2:11:25 In fact, we extensively studied it. So it's it is a bottom up coordination system that does end up having new information emerge as the result of the bottom up coordination okay. And he almost never will play for anybody. But here's what I see that I think of as being really interesting and rather mysterious. Existential Risks An existential risk is anything that can cause the extinction of humanity. And we aren't. I think that's going well for us. Yeah, I don't think that we are inexorably rivalrous. videoId: '7LqaotiGWjQ', Okay. Daniel Schmachtenberger 2:14:32 right, which we have. Daniel is an evolutionary philosopher and strategist, and social engineer. It seems to me that these terrible shootings that we experience, I'm always astounded that the numbers are as low as they are. And they're not the only one right? Now this is a concept I wanted to bring up in terms of what you're saying about your brother. And so can we make? } So we say, well, let's imagine and we can, I think we can say, up to a tribal scale. // Inject YouTube API script Immediately, how do we make it through an increasingly multi-polar world, caught in economic extraction races as we near ecological limits of growth, empowered by increasingly catastrophic weapons and tools for increasingly effective widespread disinformation. This video (see the link) is an example of Daniel Schmachtenberger using Pilpul(pseudoscience), GSRRM-Critique (Psychologizing), Baiting into Hazard (the false promise of freedom from influence by superior competitors, Undermining (not providing a comparable or competitive solution that's equally testable). ) comfortable with this but by power law distribution, we mean that the The winners are so much bigger as winners than than a, let's say a normal probability normal bell shaped curve, right would tell us the, Daniel Schmachtenberger 26:09 And be dissected and discuss. That would make any sense because we change our environment so fast, most creatures emerged, evolved to fit an environmental niche. This hypothesis has the advantage of at least being consistent with the otherwise confusing and seemingly conflicting themes developed before. What I'm saying is insane. So people on their deathbed become focused on did i do enough for my community? Eric Weinstein 49:36 It ends up eating spirituality and virtue. And what you're talking about is possible when you can do better by investing in peaceful and kind alternatives. And we actually have to have a very mature relationship to it. With the first fully globalized civilization, how do we avoid the collapse fate that has befallen all previous civilizations? Where you emphasize the word rat, rather than saying the Democratic Party. But I can't do a probability calculation because they're unprecedented. Daniel Schmachtenberger 3:24:17 Daniel Schmachtenberger 52:55 Daniel Schmachtenberger 2:58:08 You know, there's some part of you, that's three, your three year old kid just wants to eat as many packets of sugar as you possibly can. And addiction of any kind, any hyper normal stimulus that decreases normal stimulus is going to end up being that bad for us. So you get a very dangerous kind of groupthink there. well, this is the thing. Does it buy a single Sorry, I want to be clear not biased v ay ay ay ay s but by bu y us is it bias anything in the sense of does that avoid catastrophic risk by itself? So then maybe we'll try and create a law to make it to where I can't do that pollution. And this is a bit of a complex argument. Yeah. And basically, they they sell advertising and the advertisers pay more than more people who are watching for more total minutes. And it really matters for when we think about resource scarcity because the resources that people need to deal with the first part, the survival part are not that much right, actually. I, you know, or that I. Daniel Schmachtenberger 3:21:49 I think there is some signal and a good bit of noise. If the lion catches the gazelle, the gazelle dies. And so as we just get out of abject poverty, birth rates go down. How do we create a world that is antifragile factoring increasingly decentralized exponential technologies? Daniel Schmachtenberger 1:15:18 We celebrate when our team wins and the other team loses so we can collectively decouple our empathy from other human beings arbitrarily, so that we can then feel good in a war supporting you know, when that type of thing occurs, and we get conditioned that second places The first loser and all those types of things. Yeah, if it doesn't in the game, right? What are you guys going on about? Think about it, the public would be asked for broad participation in something like flatten the curve and why to cover for the lack of the same ICU beds, masks PP, and ventilators that were called for in numerous academic papers over the last 20 years studying just such viral pandemic scenarios. Which is funny, right? Because multipolar traps are a situation where the well being of each agent can be optimized independently of and even at the expense of the other agents in the commons. Daniel Schmachtenberger 2:32:20 And it is of arbitrary power. So reconfiguring in groups competing with whatever tools they can against our groups. I believe that there is some force that we don't understand. and not connected to nature and not necessarily connected to meaningfulness that much that hypo normal environment creates increased susceptibility to hyper normal stimuli, hyper normal stimuli happened to be good for markets. Eric Weinstein 58:45 Well, this is, let's say this is closed. There are Buddhists and a lot of Southeast Asian countries. Daniel Schmachtenberger 1:07:02 Eric Weinstein 2:23:45 I love it. Yes. So one point is the sense making is actually hard. frequently in contexts that we share. And if there wasn't, you would have you wouldn't end up having meta stability, you'd have something have a runaway dynamic that was unchecked by the dynamics of the environment. Well, when you say hacking the source code, you mean the source code of physics so we can get something like a warp drive and I'm down right like I'll totally work with you on a galactic cruiser. It's not the world that we see at our window here. And, and that's what we see is we see an exponential increase in destructive capacity without a fundamental change in the basis of how we use it. So they'll withhold information and maybe even engage in internal espionage, all the way. // call this function when player is ready to use We tried to create law to bind it. I wanted to go somewhere with Buddhism and why not an extremely rivalrous and that then if they were to actually get the other side of the Dunbar number, which is not just getting care beyond the Dunbar number, which they could do through abstract empathy, but also the ability to calculate and coordinate which they couldn't because they didn't have the tech to do it. It's the generated function of how. So nobody has an idea that Xena philic restriction lists might be a plurality or a majority in the country. I will usually do better in markets, if I say they're awesome and do better in a corporation. The mutation pressures that are happening in nature are relatively evenly distributed across the system. So that's one of the questions that I would ask you. What is the optimum group size for a conversation? Like why there was such a change just recently, and what are the actual tactical nuclear capabilities that they have? Because ultimately, they found they wanted to go there association with me was let's talk about things that might move the needle in human history rather than Do you have any idea how much this bottle of wine cost? And we have been employing more and more powerful technology to play rival risk games. Okay. View All People. If you want me to. And I think the reason we can't think about it that way, and also the reason why we don't see whether it's ants or whether it's cells in the body or anything, why we don't see examples of the kinds of coordination in nature that will apply to humans, is I think that the development of technology both language and social coordination technologies and physical technologies, but our capacity for abstraction, and then things that increase our power via abstraction as opposed to their power increases. And they are all abstract pattern replicators rather than instantiated pattern replicators, right, so it means rather than genes. Now I'm starting to you know, I have a friend for example, who is a fantastic guitarist. Were those back to back hits of Meltzer at all stockpiling ventilators for influenza pandemic. I hope that he gets more status doing that because it's Obviously good for the world. is a placeholder. It seems to be opposed to our policies. So now we've got a constitution or a set of law or a set of market practices or whatever it is, but we don't really understand how we generated that effective thing. This answers the sex question it also it answers all the other questions but I don't think there is a there to break through too. individual genetic imperative. Because we've been in such a rare period of time that these things haven't. closed loop economy. The first phase is like, you think people are still doing that you have an overactive imagination, then when it's discovered, I say, what you think that governments don't do this? And I can take a market as a as kind of at the center, I can take capitalism at the center of the more general class of what I would call rival risk dynamics as a whole as a kind of collective intelligence. Eric Weinstein 1:19:23 So it may be, we could. to a point where we can start to take pleasure in each other's pleasure, particularly if somebody is producing something that is extremely positive for that society, I want to see Jackie Chan given more money to make Jackie Chan films. And if they would start to they would cleave. Okay. And I thought, wow, first strike you teaching your child to strike first. Today our guest is Daniel Schmachtenberger. Thank you. And I think. Eric Weinstein 2:52:13 And I couldn't figure out Metroid for four months. //'playlist': '9QGrffjOFko,mQstRd7opv4,G70qtM66iY8,', Well, yeah, this So both, I mean the Malthusian trap. And so there's this idea of a multipolar trap, which is some scenario where some agent in the system, whether the agent is a person or a nation, or a tribe, or a corporation does something that is really bad for the whole over the long term, but it's actually really advantageous to them over the near term. One of them is Daniel Schmachtenberger, an American researcher in existential risks and civilization re-design. He is being seen as smart for these things. So we get just the number of people that are needed to be able to do something like that. So there's a fine, but if the fine is less expensive than processing the waste would be then it's just a cost of doing business. But given that the technology as a social technology is a social technology of how people share information and share resources, and coordinate differently, it can't be weaponized because it is kind of the solvent to weaponization itself. What I'm starting to hear is that you believe potentially that maybe we should embrace declining populations as a means of either. We delay reproductive maturity for 12 times around the Sun seems crazy. Let us call these triage deaths if they result from a missing resource that could have and should have been stocked for just such emergencies. In short, we got here not because we couldn't foresee this future. I think that system would out compete all the systems that we've had in terms of innovation and in terms of resource usage. Thank you so much nora bateson and Daniel Schmachtenberger for your beautiful conversation on learning how to be in the world. And there were deserts where there didn't used to be deserts because we had gotten new better axes and saws and had been able to cut down more trees. But I think there are some key parts to it when they look at the most white people or the Canella people or people that did not have, that had a stable society that was not primarily pair bonded, but had multi male multi female dynamics. I mean, then. And then he would break it into a second piece, which is the stuff that goes completely counterintuitive due to sexual selection. And this is both some evolution in our epistemic sand our actual processes of clay sense making and collective coordination. So again, think about the education associated with some religions, bringing about less violence, the education associated with some cultures, bringing about higher average cognitive capacity, and being able to bring those together. within that group, thanks. Similarly, so that's one thing. That's how it occurs to me is that as we as technology is empowering our choices, and we are getting something like the power of gods, you have to have something like the love and the wisdom of gods to wield that. Right, the idea that we didn't have anything like 911 and then we had a sudden 911 kind of attack. Daniel is a founding member of The Consilience Project, aimed at improving public sensemaking and dialogue. And I end it doesn't have adequate sense making even inform what good choice making for everyone so we can participate with the system is. And that's what is actually keeping everybody in line. What if our leadership is treating this as much as an accountability crisis as a medical one when it comes to their actions? Eric Weinstein 2:59:15 So your brother and I had this conversation when we met and obviously with his background, evolutionary biology and primate mating and whatever. I have some corporation that has some liability limiting functions of any of the people within the corporation. They can be used to build even better systems. can't grow corn, either I can win at a war or I can't. Yeah, this is the point is that if you only have a few actors that have nukes, everybody can monitor each other and have something like mutually assured destruction to force an equilibrium. Dr andrew huberman personal life. Eric Weinstein 28:21 The more the slower gazelles, the faster ones genes recombined, and you get faster gazelles. So the first two that you said existential risk and catastrophic risk, there's certainly lots of different ways for both of those to occur that get that are getting increasingly likely as time goes on as I model it, and I think we should get into that. And we see that that's not just true With Republican and Democrat, but even like multiple intelligence agencies, it should be sharing intelligence perfectly with each other, but they're actually competing for who gets a larger percentage of the black budget. Things like resource questions and negative externalities. Okay. Are we talking about media and information communication? Daniel Schmachtenberger is a founding member of The Consilience Project, aimed at improving public sensemaking and dialogue. Eric Weinstein 3:24:18 But in a world where I have a lot of isolation, nuclear family, home structures, etc. This wiki could serve to aggregate various terms, concepts, information, and projects relating to Game B. Sorry about that. Yeah. Daniel Schmachtenberger 25:35 And I think we've, especially since Darwin modeled ourselves as apex predators for a long time. And say, Well, great. We'll come to some steady state birth rates. correcting and knows best that the world leading thinkers are all sitting in institutional chairs. It's sitting there on servers. If you're hurting, I feel that I feel compassion and empathy. We're screwing up everywhere. but it is out of poetic, Eric Weinstein 1:04:36 So we get this exponential up ratcheting of the game of power itself. Not very long that we've had that. He uses more of the inspirational new age west coast language, and I use prosecutorial scientific economic and legal language. And to be able to have that much power and not use it in ways that destroy the system requires being actually good stewards of power. And we start dropping down again. But I think Daniel has many interesting perspectives.
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