He struck up a conversation with a white man who was a member of the Ku Klux Klan. or "What is the likelihood of naval clashes claiming over 10 lives in the East China Sea?" Its easy to notice when others need to change their opinions, but difficult for us to develop the same habit for ourselves. Professionally, its all about setting the table and/or recognizing the table thats been set. Part I: Individual Rethinking philip tetlock preacher, prosecutor, politician. Preachers: We pontificate and promote our ideas (sometimes to defend our ideas from attack). Preachers work well with a congregation. People can become very punitive "intuitive prosecutors" when they feel sacred values have been seriously violated, going well beyond the range of socially acceptable forms of punishment when given chances to do so covertly. Cons: The pattern of bookending every chapter with an anecdote gets tiresome. Wagner Dodge made a quick decision to build an escape fire and lay down in the charred area while the wildfire raged around him. The antidote is to complexify by showing the range of views for a given topic. Philip E. Tetlock (born 1954) is a Canadian-American political science writer, and is currently the Annenberg University Professor at the University of Pennsylvania, where he is cross-appointed at the Wharton School and the School of Arts and Sciences. The pundits we all listen to are no better at predictions than a "dart-throwing chimp," and they are routinely surpassed by normal news-attentive citizens. The Expert Political Judgements study was run over 20 years in which Tetlock asked a group of pundits to rate three possible outcomes for a political or . Whats the best way to find those out? How can we know? Critical Review. But when the iPhone was released, Lazaridis failed to change his thinking to respond to a rapidly changing mobile device market. I understand the advantages of your recommendation. Because we have the doubt, we then propose looking in new directions for new ideas. It is the product of particular ways of thinking, of gathering information, of updating beliefs. capitalism and communism. Part IV: Conclusion Moore, D., Tetlock, P.E., Tanlu, L., &Bazerman, M. (2006). Many beliefs are arbitrary and based on flimsy foundations. Tetlock, P.E. It consists of everything we choose to focus on. Start by observing, asking questions, and listening. In theory, confidence and competence go hand in hand. This book fills that need. Once I'd gotten that framework into my head, I couldn't let it go. As Prosecutor, we automatically attack any ideas that don't f Philip Tetlock of the University of Pennsylvania and author of Superforecasting talks with EconTalk host Russ Roberts about his work on assessing probabilities with teams of thoughtful a Show EconTalk, Ep Philip Tetlock on Superforecasting - Dec 20, 2015 Process accountability evaluates projects, individuals and teams based on the decision-making process. Why do you think its correct? When were locked in preacher mode, we are set on promoting our ideas (at the expense of listening to others). 2006. They give examples of successful and unsuccessful decision-making processes, none more diametrically opposed as two US Army missions. What should we eat for dinner?). Better yet, make your identity one in which you actively seek truth and knowledgethis opens you up to curiosity and rethinking. [10][11], In a 1985 essay, Tetlock proposed that accountability is a key concept for linking the individual levels of analysis to the social-system levels of analysis. We will stand on any soapbox to sell it with tremendous enthusiasm. Here, Philip E. Tetlock explores what constitutes good judgment in predicting future events, and looks at why experts are often wrong in their forecasts. Quick-To-Read Conversation Starters For The Stubbornly Ambitious. In this hour-long interview, Tetlock offers insight into what people look for in a forecaster everything from reassurance to entertainment and what makes a good forecaster it requires more than just intelligence. Its a set of skills in asking and responding. Conventional view: intelligence is the ability to think and learn. Ann Arbor, MI: University of Michigan Press. Weve since come to rethink our approach to remote wildfires. Alternative view: intelligence is the ability to rethink and unlearn, i.e. The Superforecasting book focused on shorter-range forecasts, the longest of which, about 12 months, being only as long as the shortest forecasts in the Expert Political Judgment project. flexible thinking. He leads Marie-Helene to decide for herself to vaccinate her child. You wouldn't use a hammer to try to cut down a tree, and try to use an axe to drive nails and you're likely to lose a finger. Organizational culture can either foster or inhibit rethinking. Tetlock describes the profiles of various superforecasters and the attributes they share in the book he wrote alongside Dan Gardner,Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction. Since 2011, Tetlock and his wife/research partner Barbara Mellers have been co-leaders of the Good Judgment Project (GJP), a research collaborative that emerged as the winner of the IARPA tournament. Cognitive bias: Seeing what we want to see. NASA took Lucas explanation at face value. Central to nearly all debates about politics, power, and justice is the tension between. The forecasters were 284 experts from a variety of fields, including government officials, professors, journalists, and others, with many opinions, from Marxists to free-marketeers. We have to be careful when theyre out of their domains. David Dunning: The first rule of the Dunning-Kruger club is that you dont know youre a member of the Dunning-Kruger club.. Confident humility: An ideal wherein the individual has faith in their abilities but retains sufficient doubt and flexibility to recognize they could be wrong. Ellen Ochoa (NASA astronaut and director) 3x5 note card reminded her to ask these questions: How do you know? is an important question to ask both of ourselves and of others. Tetlock is also co-principal investigator of The Good Judgment Project, a multi-year study of the feasibility of improving the accuracy of probability judgments of high-stakes, real-world events. The Adversarial Collaboration Project, run by Cory Clark and Philip Tetlock, helps scientists with competing perspectives design joint research that tests both arguments. Think Again: The Power of Knowing What You Dont Know by Adam Grant (2021) is a new addition to the growing body of mainstream books about mental blindspots, cognitive biases, and thinking errors. The truth remains that for all our social science, the world manages to surprise us far more often than not. The team was inserted into challenging conditions and the fire quickly overtook them. Desirability bias: The tendency to act in a manner that enhances your acceptance or approval from others. Politician mode seeks the approval of others and has little conviction for the truth. Their conclusions are predetermined. Exploring these questions reveals the limits of our knowledge. In Superforecasting, Tetlock and coauthor Dan Gardner offer a masterwork on prediction, drawing on decades of research and the results of a massive, government-funded forecasting tournament. Philip Tetlock, Lu Yunzi, Barbara Mellers (2022), False Dichotomy Alert: Improving Subjective-Probability Estimates vs. Raising Awareness of Systemic Risk, International Journal of Forecasting. We base our decisions on forecasts, so these findings call into question the accuracy of our decision-making. Tetlock's research program over the last four decades has explored five themes: In his early work on good judgment, summarized in Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? Learn to ask questions that dont have a single right answer. The title of this 2005 release asks the question on all of our minds. Apparently, "even the most opinionated hedgehogs become more circumspect"[9] when they feel their accuracy will soon be compared to that of ideological rivals. We make predictions about the possible outcomes of certain actions in order to inform our decision-making. Prosecutor: "When we're in prosecutor mode, we're trying to prove someone else wrong," he continued. Being aware of these can dramatically change the approach we take for ourselves and our audience. Most people believe (wrongly) that preaching with passion and conviction is the best way to persuade others. We dont know what might motivate someone else to change, but were generally eager to find out., Gentle recommendations that allow the other person to maintain agency are offered like: Here are a few things that have helped medo you think any of them might work for you?. ), Research in organizational behavior (vol. What leads you to that assumption? The first part considers rethinking at the individual level. Think Again is structured into three main parts. Tetlock also realized that certain people are able to make predictions far more accurately than the general population. By contrast, System 1 is largely a stranger to us. This talk given by Tetlock goes along with his 2015 book,Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction. As a result of this work, he received the 2008 University of Louisville Grawemeyer Award for Ideas Improving World Order, as well as the 2006 Woodrow Wilson Award for best book published on government, politics, or international affairs and the Robert E. Lane Award for best book in political psychology, both from the American Political Science Association in 2005. Follow Philip Tetlock to get new release emails from Audible and Amazon. Psychological Inquiry, 15 (4), 257-278. Those who embraced flexible thinking did not. These include beliefs, assumptions, opinions, and more. This approach to teaching is problematic as it involves passive transmission of ideas from expert to student. It implies that we have arrived at an optimal solution. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 78 (2000):853-870. Opening story: International debate champion Harish Natarajan vs. Debra Jo Prectet (later revealed to be a computer AI). Social-Functionalist Metaphors for Judgment and Choice: The Intuitive Politician, Theologian, and Prosecutor. The training, techniques and talent described in my book "Superforecasting" can help your organization manage strategic uncertainty. We constantly rationalize and justify our beliefs. These habits of thought can be learned and cultivated by any intelligent, thoughtful, determined person., Tetlock, who was born in Canada, attended university in his native country, at the University of British Columbia, where he completed his undergraduate degree in 1975 and his Masters degree in 1976.8He went on to do his doctoral studies at Yale, where he obtained his Ph.D. in psychology in 1979.9Since then, Tetlock has taught courses in management, psychology, and political science at the University of California, Berkeley, the Ohio State University, and the University of Pennsylvania, where he is a current faculty member.10Broadly, his research focuses on the evaluation of good judgment and the criteria used to assess judgment, bias, and error.11, In describing how we think and decide, modern psychologists often deploy a dual-system model that partitions our mental universe into two domains. 1993-1995 Distinguished Professor, University of California, Berkeley. He has written several non-fiction books at the intersection of psychology, political science and organizational behavior, including Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction; Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? Forecasters with the biggest news media profiles were also especially bad. Politician: It's no shock that "when we're in politician mode, we're trying to win the. Binary bias: The human tendency to seek clarity by reducing a spectrum of categories to two opposites. Forecast, measure, revise: it is the surest path to seeing better., Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction. Second thoughts on expert political judgment. He exhibits many of the characteristics of skilled negotiators from Chapter 5. Sunk costs are one explanation (an economic factor). Good Judgment, Inc. 2014 - Present9 years. Phil Tetlock's (political scientist) mindset model: Preachers, prosecutors, and politicians. Those with a scientific mindset search for truth by testing hypotheses, regularly run experiments, and continuously uncover new truths and revise their thinking. What adverse side effects can such de-biasing efforts have on quality of decision-making. For millennia, great thinkers and scholars have been working to understand the quirks of the human mind. We dont just hesitate to rethink our answers. Although he too occasionally adopts this reductionist view of political psychology in his work, he has also raised the contrarian possibility in numerous articles and chapters that reductionism sometimes runs in reverseand that psychological research is often driven by ideological agenda (of which the psychologists often seem to be only partly conscious). . Rational models of human behavior aim to predict, possibly control, humans. Rethinking is not only an individual skill, its also an organizational one. The others might not agree with those arguments, but they are left defenseless and bitter. Its the habits we develop as we keep revising our drafts and the skills we build to keep learning., Chapter 10: Thats Not the Way Weve Always Done It. Here, Philip E. Tetlock explores what constitutes good judgment in predicting future events, and looks at why experts are often wrong in their forecasts. Opening story: Mike Lazaridis, the founder of the BlackBerry smartphone. (Eds.) Political Science Counterfactual Thought Experiments in World Politics: Logical, Methodological, and Psychological Perspectives Philip E. Tetlock Aaron Belkin Paperback Price: $69.95/54.00 ISBN: 9780691027913 Published: Sep 8, 1996 Copyright: 1997 Pages: 344 Size: 7.75 x 10 in. 1988-1995 Director, Institute of Personality and Social Research, University of California, Berkeley. Tetlock first discusses arguments about whether the world is too complex for people to find the tools to understand political phenomena, let alone predict the future. philip tetlock preacher, prosecutor, politician; 29 Jun 22; ricotta cheese factory in melbourne; philip tetlock preacher, prosecutor, politicianis sonny barger still alive in 2020 Category: . Outrage goes viral and makes for better sound bites. Psychologically unsafe settings hide errors to avoid penalties. Im disappointed in the way this has unfolded, are you frustrated with it?. We dont have to stay tethered to old images of where we want to go or who we want to be. When he is pretty sure of how it is going to work, and he tells you, This is the way its going to work, Ill bet, he still is in some doubt. the degree to which simple training exercises improved the accuracy of probabilistic judgments as measured by Brier scores; the degree to which the best forecasters could learn to distinguish many degrees of uncertainty along the zero to 1.0 probability scale (many more distinctions than the traditional 7-point verbal scale used by the National Intelligence Council); the consistency of the performance of the elite forecasters (superforecasters) across time and categories of questions; the power of a log-odds extremizing aggregation algorithm to out-perform competitors; the apparent ability of GJP to generate probability estimates that were "reportedly 30% better than intelligence officers with access to actual classified information. Phil Tetlock's (political scientist) mindset model: Preachers, prosecutors, and politicians. The authors stress that good forecasting does not require powerful computers or arcane methods. Chapter 5: Dances with Foes. The interrogators would aggressively assault the subjects world-views (the goal was to mentally stress the participants). He's soft-spoken, gestures frequently with his hands, and often talks in . Tetlock first discusses arguments about whether the world is too complex for people to find the tools to understand political phenomena, let alone predict the future. The test group outperformed the control group significantly and tended to pivot twice as often. Designing accountability systems: How do people cope with various types of accountability pressures and demands in their social world? The rate of the development of science is not the rate at which you make observations alone but, much more important, the rate at which you create new things to test., Tetlock and his team have reached the conclusion that, while not everyone has the ability to become a superforecaster, we are all capable of improving our judgment.6While the research of the Good Judgment Project has come to a close, the Good Judgment initiative continues to offer consulting services and workshops to companies worldwide. He was elected a Member of the American Philosophical Society in 2019. Changing your mind is a sign of intellectual integrity and a response to evidence. (2001). Questioning ourselves makes the world more unpredictable. (2006). As if at some point you become something and thats the end., Kids might be better off learning about careers as actions to take rather than as identities to claim.. Cognitive Biases in Path-Dependent Systems: Theory-Driven Reasoning About Plausible Pasts and Probable Futures in World Politics," in T. Gilovich, D.w. Griffin, and D. Kahneman (eds) Inferences, Heuristics and Biases: New Directions in Judgment Under Uncertainty. Be confident in your ability to learn more than in your knowledge (which is malleable). How politicized is political psychology and is there anything we should do about it? This scientific mind is a key through line in the book; it offers a superior path to improved thinking, true knowledge, and lifelong learning. Experiments can inform our daily decisions.. Author recommends twice a year personal checkups: opportunities to reassess your current pursuits, whether your current desires still align with your plans, and whether its time to pivot. The Good Judgment Project involves tens of thousands of ordinary peopleincluding a Brooklyn filmmaker, a retired pipe installer, and a former ballroom . He has served on the faculty of the University of California, Berkeley (19791995, assistant professor), the Ohio State University (the Burtt Endowed Chair in Psychology and Political Science, 19962001) and again at the University of California Berkeley (the Mitchell Endowed Chair at the Haas School of Business, 20022010). How Can We Know? A mark of lifelong learners is recognizing that they can learn something from everyone they meet.. [29][30] In this view, political actorsbe they voters or national leadersare human beings whose behavior should be subject to fundamental psychological laws that cut across cultures and historical periods. When were in prosecution mode, we actively attack the ideas of others in an effort to win an argument. Richard Feynman (physicist): You must not fool yourselfand you are the easiest person to fool.. (2002). Logic bully: Someone who overwhelms others with rational arguments. We have no awareness of these rapid-fire processes but we could not function without them.
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