Photo: Isaiah J. Anthony Amico: The story with Gibson is somewhat similar to that of Jacobs but with a proof of concept already complete. I understand the upside, but I don't want to take a huge miss if I'm drafting in Week 1. Drew Davenport: Gordon hasn't been a special player for a while now, and at times last year looked completely ineffective. Williams can still be a great producer, but at his ADP, I won't be drafting him when he isn't getting the bulk of the touches. Drafting Jacobs around this price is drafting him at his ceiling -- perhaps even above it. Cohen is strictly limited to passing-down work, and the numbers suggest that he isn't outstanding in that role either. In 2019, his last full season, Cohen averaged 5.8 yards per catch and 4.4 yards per target -- terrible numbers for a third-down back. Pat Fitzmaurice: The appeal is that he's an inexpensive lead back. Then as soon as they go south, we pile on like kids in a mosh pit? That number of targets limited his ceiling, and he was barely a low-end RB2. The flip side of succeeding with value players is failing with overvalued players. Never a good idea. Bettis was nothing more than an average RB for a long period of time (13 years). 54 touchdowns. It all depends on who works best in the new scheme and if the scheme works. The current regime did not select Robinson. Sigmund Bloom: Jacobs' ADP would be justified and reasonable if the Raiders hadn't added Kenyan Drake, but they did. Ricky Watters 20. David Montgomery looked the part of a workhorse profile after Cohen left the lineup, and Khalil Herbert is a rookie to watch for upward mobility on the depth chart. J.K. McKissic, Washington | Consensus Rankings RB47 | Consensus Projections RB45. He made general managers look like geniuses with more than 2,000 total yards and 20 touchdowns in 2016. Notre Dame's Kyren Williams was one of them and Georgia's James Cook was the other player named. A new offensive coordinator in Pittsburgh also adds uncertainty to the situation. Barkley is a workhorse. At cost, D'Andre Swift and others are better combinations of floor and ceiling. As everyone knows by now, Montgomery faced some of the worst run defenses in the league over that finishing stretch to put up those huge numbers. Malcolm Brown has also been an underrated commodity for some time now and gets a shot to compete with Gaskin for significant playing time. Pat Fitzmaurice: This is the type of player I won't draft at any cost. Jeff Haseley: Josh McDaniels' history of using multiple running backs in his offense is enough to be concerned about Josh Jacobs not having a full-time role as the lead back for the Raiders. In 2020, James Conner ranked 36th and Benny Snell ranked 54th in expected yards-per-carry out of 55 qualifiers, a sign of a weak offensive line and scheme. You are better off investing in a more consistent player for your RB2 when you get to the late second or early third round of drafts. The more problematic issue is that the Texans are a train wreck. Single Jamal Lewis 18. But just like Logan Thomas, McKissic benefitted from a perfect storm of low average depth of target throws from the quarterbacks last year and the lack of receivers outside of Terry McLaurin. Jones was the better, more efficient runner during the 2020 regular season, and Bernard seems destined to be Tampa's primary passing-down back. Tarik Cohen, Chicago | Consensus Rankings RB49 | Consensus Projections RB47. Clyde Edwards-Helaire was used as a space player last year, and his lack of a red-zone presence placed a ceiling on his fantasy value. Ty Johnson has strong athleticism and played over Carter in the first week of the preseason, and La'Mical Perine has a similar profile to Carter. Green Bay seems to like A.J. The 39 Most Overrated Bands Of All-Time While they might have some catchy tunes, some bands are really overrated. Davis has changed teams five times in the last three seasons. Victoria Geary: The Ravens have "made it a point of emphasis" to get Dobbins more looks in the passing game for 2021, but we know coach speak isn't very trustworthy during the offseason. And in fact, some managers are drafting him to be in their fantasy starting lineups in Week 1. He doesnt have that much of a skill set difference with Malcolm Brown and Salvon Ahmed either. Sigmund Bloom: Not that the Texans offense was anything you wanted to go near in fantasy drafts in the first place, but Johnson's ADP needs to adjust by multiple rounds to the news that he will be sharing the backfield with Phillip Lindsay and Mark Ingram II and no longer in the lead back role. Yeah, us, too. Ryan Hester: Chubb shares his backfield with a very talented player in Kareem Hunt, and Hunt is the one who gets the lions share of the passing game work. Kudos to James Robinson. 1 Barry Sanders Barry Sanders is a former American football running back who spent his entire professional career with the Detroit Lions of the National Football League. Additionally, Brandon Bolden -- a member of Josh McDaniels' Patriot teams -- is with the club. His fantasy value came in catching 59 receptions, which won't happen in Arthur Smith's offense that doesn't throw to the tailbacks much. Footballguys staff members discuss running backs who are overvalued. Lynn will also rely on the hot hand approach - and Swift is more likely to run hot than Williams - but how often will this offense and team play well enough to give Swift a favorable game script. And even if he played all three downs, the target competition is strong (Davante Adams, Darren Waller, Hunter Renfrow). Harris stayed an extra year in college to improve his draft capital, and rightfully so, as the 2020 class was filled with elite running back talent. Edgerrin James 17. It seems the case that he is being drafted well above his upside. While Jacobs is capable of a bell-cow role, McDaniels has a long history of maddening running back usage as the Patriots OC. These players will not put up stats commensurate to their draft spot, and avoiding them is another of the important keys to a successful fantasy team. Dave Kluge: Sure, youre not giving up any crazy draft capital to get J.D. Henry has never caught more than 19 passes in a season, and that limited production as a receiver is an issue. Jordan McNamara: Javonte Williams got a major bump in value in the offseason when Melvin Gordon III was a free agent. This is more important for Barkley than most backs because he relies on his immense gifts more than most backs. Jameis Winston is a downfield passer, and Hill would rather run than check down. He feasted on unsustainable opportunities and a soft schedule. For both Cleveland backs to be values, the team would have to produce vintage New Orleans-level production for its backs. The depth behind Ekeler is average, but there are enough players to steal touches. I just see way too much downside to take a risk on lightning striking twice. History and time have helped make Perry one of the most overrated defensive players of all time. While the opportunity is undeniable, it's risky betting on Davis as the answer. Ryan Hester: Even before he played double-digit snaps in the most meaningless of all meaningless preseason games, Jacobs was a solid fade. Chad Parsons: Sanders stands out in the mid-teens of the running back draft pecking order most with his odds of being a high-impact option. Gaskin may be the best receiver of the trio, but Ahmed isn't far behind. And just how many touchdowns should we expect from an offense with glaring question marks at quarterback and the worst wide receiver depth chart this side of Detroit? The 49ers traded up to draft Trey Sermon, they brought in Wayne Gallman as a free agent, and Jeff Wilson is still around. Harris stayed an extra year in college to improve his draft capital, and rightfully so, as the 2020 class was filled with elite running back talent. Heading into this season, their offensive line is mediocre, their quarterback situation is a mess, they have a new coach, and the rest of the skill position players are uninspiring. Kevin Coleman: Antonio Gibsons value took a hit this offseason. McKissic, one the league's better pass-catching backs. It appears as if theres a change of guard happening in San Fransisco. Matt Waldman: Many of my peers at Footballguys are worshippers of draft capital as a predictor of talent. Williams is extremely talented, but as of now, it looks like this will be a split backfield. Johnson was once a big name at the running back position and is still getting drafted based on that name and past production. Jason Wood: Sanders is talented, and when healthy, was productive under former head coach Doug Pederson. Chad Parsons: Travis Etienne and Carlos Hyde were both chosen additions by the new Jaguars regime with either Round 1 pedigree (Etienne) or a productive NFL profile (Hyde). Jason Wood: Preseason depth charts aren't perfectly predictive, but the new Texans coaching staff clearly sent a message listing Johnson as the No. Brown has more power and better acceleration and change-of-direction quickness than Gaskin, who is the better receiver. Here are the players who received the most votes: And here are all of the payers mentioned and the reasons why. I definitely do not want the most expensive option here (Carter), but Coleman and Johnson are arbitrage plays. The additions of Ryan Fitzpatrick, Curtis Samuel, Dyami Brown, and a healthy Antonio Gibson should blunt his numbers and make his season look more like 2020's first half when he averaged 4.7 targets and 3.6 receptions per game instead of his second half when he saw 8.6 targets and 6.1 catches an outing. The new coaching staff is inexperienced (second-youngest in the NFL), the system is unproven, the quarterback will gobble up a ton of rushing yards and touchdowns, and the front office has added running back depth aggressively in the offseason. Gordon was adequate last year, but that was almost purely on volume. Gordon caught only 32 passes last year, and outside of three games where he scored two touchdowns, he was a mediocre fantasy back. Barry Sanders - 15, averaged one 50-plus-yard TD every 204 carries. The final reason why Jerome Bettis is the most overrated RB of all time is because of the offensive line he ran behind. The Eagles consistently added to the depth chart this offseason with Kerryon Johnson, Jordan Howard, Kenneth Gainwell added to Boston Scott. Dave Kluge: The 49ers drafted Trey Sermon and Elijah Mitchell and signed free agent Wayne Gallman. Even when Barkley was a big fantasy hit, it took big plays that can be very mercurial from year to year to make it happen. Gaskin has an RB2 ceiling, but an RB3 value is a much stronger likelihood than many realize, whether it's Brown or a summer free-agent acquisition like Todd Gurley, Adrian Peterson, or a recent starter a team lets go to make room for an emerging force. Give me Chris Carson or Josh Jacobs in a similar draft range with stronger probabilities to hit as a top-10 option. Anthony Amico: Dobbins is being drafted as if he has a far greater stranglehold on this Ravens backfield than he likely will. Without the volume, it is going to be difficult to get decent fantasy numbers. In an attempt to point out these players, we asked our staff to look through the Top 150 and identify players that should underperform their draft position. Earl Campbell 9. However, James Robinson is a better runner than Etienne at this point. Pat Fitzmaurice: The Buccaneers' playoff run was the best four-game stretch for Fournette since the early part of the 2019 season. Even the best backs need help, and Harris is less likely to have consistent holes to run through than any of the backs going around him. Links to similar discussions on other positions: The flip side of succeeding with value players is failing with overvalued players. But career stats shouldnt have much emphasis on them for that reason. David Montgomery, Chicago | Consensus Rankings RB19 | Consensus Projections RB20. Malcolm Brown is one of the least-sexy names in fantasy football, but NFL teams sure seem to love him. Simpson 13. His ADP has not shot up the draft boards as quickly as he propelled into fantasy relevance last year due to the almost non-existent target share he received in the passing game. We've seen J.D. Chad Parsons: McKissic is priced reasonably with an implied drop in targets. Miami will use a committee as none of the backs on the roster can handle the lead-back role. The only reason Johnson had fantasy value last year was a superhuman effort from Deshaun Watson to move the offense and produce points. Matt Waldman: After studying Swift's best weeks in 2020, the Lions' offseason acquisitions, and Coach Lynn's analysis of his backs, I'm less enthusiastic about Swift. Travis Etienne, Jacksonville | Consensus Rankings RB26 | Consensus Projections RB26. Preseason may help a little. James Brimacombe: Once Kenyan Drake was out of the picture, we shot Edmonds up the draft board naturally. 2022/07/02 . This is a major factor in any expectation that Robinson would be fantasy lineup-relevant without an injury to one of the other options, especially beyond the early weeks of the season. Finally, Sanders has continued fumbling and dropping passes in camp -- problems that plagued him last season. Subscription, Early-March Top 10 Defensive Back IDP Rankings, 5 RBs to Buy In Dynasty Before NFL Free Agency. Expect a more even split in touches than many are forecasting and potentially for Brown to earn the lead role. History has shown us that Harris's ADP will likely move into Round 2 or 3 as the next few months pass. The problem is it never really felt like we stopped moving Edmonds up the board even after the signing of James Conner. Coach Brian Flores comes from New England, where they liked employing a committee, and now they have come out publicly to say this will, in fact, be a committee in Miami. Ten different running backs had more targets alone than the entire Ravens backfield in 2020. I have seen Bettis crack the top 20 and even top 10 of some lists, and this is inexplicable. Matt Waldman: Gaskin displayed underrated skills last year and has become a favorite sleeper in the fantasy community. Unfortunately, the odds are stacked against Kamara repeating as the best player in fantasy football. He's not a player to build your team around if you pick in the top half of the first round. Sep 20, 2020; Tampa, Florida, USA; Carolina . Robinsons workload will dramatically decrease this season, and drafters arent taking that into account as much as they should. Vegas used other backs last year and pigeonholed Jacobs as a two-down grinder. Sigmund Bloom: The Raiders are going to adopt a frustrating Patriots-style committee at running back under Josh McDaniels, which means that Jacobs will be at best Damien Harris in this offense. "Footballguys is the best premiumfantasy football Gaskin may be the top option for now, but that could change with a strong outing from veteran Malcolm Brown or Salvon Ahmed. J.K. Dobbins, Baltimore | Consensus Rankings RB16 | Consensus Projections RB17. Durability is atop the list after missing six games last year. McDaniels is someone who deploys multiple backs throughout the course of the game. Jamal Lewis rushed for nearly 3,400 yards in the first two seasons back from his ACL tear. Some running backs, such as Chris Johnson this year, are a full 2.0 YPC over their offensive lines ADY. Gibsons problems with fumbles have been a complaint of Ron Rivera, and he has already shown it is not gone in the preseason. Phil Alexander: Hunt finished last season as the RB10 in PPR scoring, but his cumulative stats were buoyed by a four-game stint as Cleveland's starter when Nick Chubb was out with an MCL sprain. Kareem Hunt, Cleveland | Consensus Rankings RB22 | Consensus Projections RB24. Its a knock on his offensive line. Jeff Haseley: It's easy to succumb to the notion that Saquon Barkley is one of the best running backs in the league. Jalen Hurts will inevitably take away carries and goal-line rushes from the backfield, capping any true remaining upside Sanders may have been clinging to. Here are some stats from footballoutsiders.com: * Note: ADY = adjusted line yards, PSR = power success rank, SR = stuff ranking Average ADY: 4.29 Average PSR: 11th Average SR: 9th * These stats werent kept until 1996, so this doesnt include Bettis first 3 years in the NFL. . McKissic is not your traditional committee back or injury-away dart throw for a big ceiling. Got the exact same number of carries as Williams. Tevin Coleman was specifically brought in because he knows the run-blocking schemes the Jets will employ this year, and Ty Johnson hasn't gone anywhere either. Over the past decade, the NFL has really evolved into a passing league. The uncertainty of Fournette's touch volume will make it hard to start him with confidence throughout the season, so a late-sixth-round ADP seems steep. Robinson can be successful this year, but he will need luck and to earn the trust of the new coaching staff. Thats the first thing we notice. Jason Garrett was one of the most uninspiring play-callers in the league last year. Overrated David Boston -- WR, 1999-02 Boston was a former first-round pick by the Cardinals who had an epic Pro Bowl /All-Pro season in 2001 when he caught 98 passes for nearly 1,600 yards and. His value is trending in the wrong direction. The coaching staff did not ignore this, as they selected the best pass-catching running back in the fifth round of the NFL Draft in Kenneth Gainwell. After the Robinson selection, head coach Ron Rivera likened the potential Antonio Gibson and Brian Robinson Jr combination to the Jonathan Stewart and D'Angelo Williams pairing he used during his Carolina days. Brady is known for being the only quarterback in history to win 7 Super Bowls, and is often considered one of the best quarterbacks of all time. Jonathan Morris: Gibson was already someone I was worried about getting enough volume to be drafted at his current ADP. His current draft price is almost his upside. They did not pick up his fifth-year option and took Zamir White in the fourth round of the NFL Draft. He finally received the workhorse role fantasy players have craved. Gordon's arrow is pointing down for 2021, and he could be marginalized as the season goes on because the team also likes free agent signing Mike Boone. Alvin Kamara, New Orleans | Consensus Rankings RB3 | Consensus Projections RB2. But regardless of quarterback, Kamara is unlikely to return to his 80 reception ways. Top 10 Most Overrated Athletes of All Time It's not that they aren't great players, they just aren't everything we've been led to believe. Bursting onto the scene in our list is Micah Richards. Emmitt Smith 4. There is no upside with drafting Gaskin this high. Chad Parsons: Travis Etienne and Carlos Hyde were chosen additions by the new Jaguars regime with either Round 1 pedigree (Etienne) or a productive NFL profile (Hyde). Walter Payton 5. Although the rookie saw an uptick in usage throughout his first season, he managed to eclipse 66% of his teams snaps just once. Its easy and lazy to make comparisons to "Todd Gurley under Sean McVay," but that hope is pushing him into a tier of running backs that he does not belong. Even if he isn't named the Saints' starting quarterback, Hill's continued presence in the red zone and at the goal-line infringes on Kamara's touchdown opportunity. O.J. David Johnson 's fantasy fortunes have been a roller coaster ride over the past three seasons. However, Melvin Gordon III returning is the lynchpin for tepid upside expectations outside of a Gordon injury. They will be pass-dominant inside the five-yard line, which doesn't help Edwards-Helaire's fantasy stock. That's right, Fournette was cut by the Jaguars, and I think the same could happen with Gordon entering this season. In June 2008, Sports Illustrated polled nearly 500 players on the most overrated athlete in baseball, and Jeter was numero uno. Kansas City had 40 passing touchdowns and 10 rushing scores. Detroit signed Jamaal Williams to take the heavy work and kicked the tires on Todd Gurley before declining his addition. Jeff Haseley: The Dolphins have a three-headed approach to the running back position this year. Swift has already broken the injury seal with a groin issue in camp, and Jamaal Williams has already been spoken of highly as a potential 1A to Swift's No. Jamal Lewis-- RB, 2000-06 There have been seven running backs who have rushed for 2,000 yards in a season, and Jamal Lewis is by far the least memorable of the bunch. I am a heretic in that regard. Avoid. Washingtons offense ranked 21st in overall DVOA last season and doesnt project to improve much in 2022 despite the addition of Carson Wentz. That looks like a mistake from where the situation sits now. His retirement all but guarantees some drop-off in Kamara's receiving numbers regardless of whether Jameis Winston or Taysom Hill is named the Saints starting quarterback. James Robinson, Jacksonville | Consensus Rankings RB28 | Consensus Projections RB29. This was largely in line with his previous year's 10.7 per game which allowed him to plod his way to an uninspiring RB24 finish. The investment in veteran wideout Sammy Watkins and rookies Rashod Bateman and Tylan Wallace almost cements Dobbinss capped upside in the passing game. McKissic. His current draft price is almost his upside. At present, I'm avoiding Gaskin because I do not trust the role, especially ahead of projected starters like Mike Davis and other players with higher upside like Travis Etienne. Take Carter later as a committee back with some possible upside, but he's being overvalued by drafters right now. He rewarded those believers with an RB18 PPG season. 24 Overrated RBs. Projections, Get The Most Out Of Your Chad Parsons: It's a crowded Jets depth chart, and assuming Carter rises to the top of a collection of similar profiles is overstated with his draft valuation. David Johnson, Houston | Consensus Rankings RB27 | Consensus Projections RB31. Phil Alexander: What makes people so confident the Dolphins backfield is not a committee? Mike Davis, Atlanta | Consensus Rankings RB24 | Consensus Projections RB23. His primary use has been as an excellent pass-catching back. This should be a fair competition, considering that Miami is changing its scheme this year. most overrated running backs of all time. Ryan Hester: If Aaron Rodgers leaves Green Bay, no Green Bay players will see their output exceed their price tag. Fred Taylor Gary Davenport: Drafting an RB1 based on wishful thinking isn't an ideal strategy, yet Williams keeps getting picked inside the top-12 at his position. Gibson has also been struggling with fumbles in training camp, which have drawn the ire of the Commanders coaching staff. Ben Cummins: Robinson was an awesome story in 2020 as he just kept producing while seeing 21.43 opportunities per game (6th most in the league) from Weeks 1-16. Jim Brown 2. Henry is all but guaranteed to regress after rushing for over 2,000 yards last season, and he doesnt catch enough passes. And was brought back by a new staff that keeps saying he will be a significant part of the offense. Most Overrated QB: Tom Brady 1 of 6 Ben Cummins: Henrys past two monster years were with offensive coordinator Arthur Smith, the head coach in Atlanta. Josh Jacobs, Las Vegas | Consensus Rankings RB19 | Consensus Projections RB19. Has no highlight reel. However, his footwork and explosiveness in tight spaces allowed him to slip would-be tacklers with consistency. If he is still on the opening day roster, his workload will be usurped by the rookie when the coaching staff trusts him. It all depends on who works best in the new scheme and if the scheme works. He's a workout warrior - I get that, but whether or not he recovers immediately from this injury is yet to be seen, and because there is a doubt, he's someone I am avoiding at nearly all costs. The Eagles also resigned Jordan Howard and added Kerryon Johnson to the backfield, exhibiting their lack of trust in Sanders to be an every-down back. Now we can extinguish any hopes of Jacobs getting more involved in the passing game. Curtis Martin 11. 2 fantasy back this year is a dubious decision. Then, two players were listed as being the most overrated compared to their draft projection. McKissic this offseason and added Alabama running back Brian Robinson Jr Jr. in the 3rd round of the NFL draft. Adding another trip around the sun and competition from two young, capable running backs is the recipe for the bottom to fall out for Gordon. They traded up in the draft to select Javonte Williams and, without the large contract, may have already released the former Charger. But I do not believe The Bus should be in the list of the top 40 RBs of all time. Backs who will receive bigger shares of their teams usage are going after Chubb. Austin Ekeler, LA Chargers | Consensus Rankings RB7 | Consensus Projections RB7. If Robinson claims goal line work, there is an upward battle for returning a value in his ADP. For example, take Imagine Dragons and Maroon 5, both very accomplished. Henderson was arguably the best blocking fullback during the late 90s, paving the way for nine 1,000 yard rushers in his 12 years in Green Bay. This likely puts Gibson two injuries away from a full workload, and Robinson is capable of taking away money touches in the redzone as well. Andrew Davenport: Fournette's production in the playoffs was artificially inflated by the injury to Ronald Jones II, and part of Fournette's regular-season fantasy production last year was due to his pass-catching role. Footballguys staff members discuss running backs who are overvalued. Jason Wood: Williams has the talent to be a top-10 fantasy back for years. There's zero appeal here. 21 RB Sleepers. Here's our list of the greatest 30 running backs in NFL history. The team didn't improve a problem defensive line. Optimizer Quick Start, Percent Rostered He was a reliable pass-protector, and had sure hands. Scoring at least once in 9 games (16 gms total) yields a 56% chance of a score in each game. Andy Hicks: D'Andre Swift had a patchy rookie season. Wait until next year. At others, he made mistakes and was underused. I think this is pretty unfair to call him the most overrated. He's more powerful and understands how to work between the tackles. He's a strong talent with some flaws with a better all-around back ahead of him. When I was comparing Bettis stats to the the 3 RBs I mentioned above, I saw that Bettis was highly overrated. Gaskin was a revelation versus his cost a year ago but is a buyer beware in 2021. Sigmund Bloom: Johnson was still in line to start after he took a pay cut to stay with the Texans, but then the team added Phillip Lindsay after he and the Broncos parted ways, which embroils Johnson in a frustrating committee backfield in an offense that is likely to be among the league's worst. Also, Jalen Hurts is poised to siphon a few short-range scores from the running back position.
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