NFL Nation: Analysis for every pick The only eligible player with that sort of rsum who hasn't made it to Canton is Webb, and while Webb was also a left tackle, he didn't make a single Pro Bowl after turning 30. Most Approximate Value (AV) in a receiver's best sets of five and seven consecutive seasons, 1960-2019. All seven players who did that and who are eligible for the Hall are in, and the list of ineligible guys includes Hill, Patrick Willis, Joe Thomas, Adrian Peterson, Patrick Peterson, Zack Martin and Aaron Donald. Adams has two Pro Bowls and an All-Pro nod across his first three seasons, putting him in a group with safeties such as Kenny Easley, Steve Atwater, Ed Reed and Troy Polamalu. As he enters the league, Young's chances of making the Hall of Fame on draft status alone sneak him into consideration. Partner with Us Back. If he can stay healthy, he's probably going to retire in the top 10 for career passing yardage, but will that really be enough to get him in without more individual awards or team success? I polled my Twitter followers and found that 42.6% of voters thought Rivers was a Hall of Famer. Both Bosa and Kittle could make this tier placement look stupid if they have big seasons in 2020. Panthers impressed by Derek Carr visit The 2010 No. If James gets back there this season, he might even be able to jump into the Likely category. While James is closer to the 69% end of the spectrum here, Bosa's more toward 40%. It hasn't been for lack of trying on his part, though. The content on this page is for informational purposes only. He has been one of the five best players at the second-most lucrative position in football over the past five years, and the fact that he was traded for two first-round picks and then delivered a wildly successful season with all of that attention in 2018 helps him. Even so, I think hell eventually get there. Aldon Smith, who was once the most promising young edge rusher in football, would need a miraculous comeback in his first season since 2015 to get back on the HOF radar. Kelce has been a first-team All-Pro three consecutive times, although he oddly didn't make the Pro Bowl in two of those campaigns. Copyright 2000-2023 Sports Reference LLC. An interesting case could be made for Frank Gore, who is third all-time in rushing with 16,000 yards in a 16-season career with five teams, but tied for 19th in touchdowns with 81. For a list of other positions, click here. If Evans goes his entire career without gaining widespread notoriety or making a memorable run in the playoffs even if he has a long and steadily productive career and is regarded as one of the top receivers of his generation his chances to make the Hall of Fame will be materially diminished. What do Johnsons future prospects look like? He has made the Pro Bowl in each of his first six seasons, adding four first-team All-Pro appearances. Wilson is somewhere in the 90% range. Elliott should be a prohibitive favorite to get in. Sanders started 16 regular season games at cornerback and another eight at wide receiver - becoming the first two-way starter in the NFL since the Philadelphia Eagles Chuck Bednarik, who retired in 1962. If he can follow in Patrick Mahomes' footsteps and win a Super Bowl this year, Jackson will have an impeccable rsum to start his career. His peak is Hall of Fame-worthy -- he has two of the three best seasons in fantasy football history by a tight end -- but it lasted only four seasons. The big deal he signed with the Jags and the subsequent 14.5-sack campaign he posted in leading them to the AFC Championship Game turned the tide, as Campbell was a first-team All-Pro and made three consecutive Pro Bowl trips with Jacksonville. He had a wasted 2019 season, as he went down with a high ankle sprain in Week 3 and averaged 3.2 yards per carry over his next seven games after returning, but 2020 should see Barkley return to form. If that seems surprising after what he accomplished last season, remember that it was his first season with either a Pro Bowl or an All-Pro nod. Hes too similar to other Hall-of-Famers and future Hall-of-Famers not to be taken seriously. Ten of those 12 are in the Hall -- Elliott and Adrian Peterson are the other two. On Tuesday, future NFL Hall of Fame wide receiver Larry Fitzgerald spoke with the team. What will define Eric Bieniemy's success? The only player in the Hall of Fame primarily for his work as a punter is Ray Guy, and you could make a case that Hekker is on that track. In recent years Seattle has gained somewhat of a reputation as being the last stop for future Hall of Fame wide receivers. He has a stronger case than you think. Reggie Wayne, a Senior Bowl Hall of Famer, prepped Jalen Wayne for what to . But given the relatively small number of modern-era inductees each year a minimum of three and maximum of five now is a good time to look at the ballot in upcoming years and notable players wholl become eligible for election and may impact Johnsons fate with voters. His 2016 season was one of the most impressive years we've ever seen from a quarterback, as he dominated during the regular season and won league MVP. I've split players into four groups. Dan Orlovsky denounces the NFL Network's Top 100 players for 2020 for excluding Eagles quarterback Carson Wentz. His time may come, but maybe not for a while. Edelman has never made a Pro Bowl, but the only . Watt is off to a dominant start, having racked up 34.5 sacks over three seasons while earning two Pro Bowl nods and a first-team All-Pro berth last season. Byard was a first-team All-Pro in 2017 when he led the league with eight picks, but despite playing at an upper-echelon level over the ensuing two seasons, he hasn't received the same consideration. Evans has a chance to continue making history in 2022. He probably needs to keep that streak going for a couple more years or rack up another 15-sack campaign to move the needle to Likely. Aaron Rodgers has had a lack of weapons on the Green Bay Packers Work to do (10% to 39%): WR Mike Evans, WR Chris Godwin, LB Lavonte David. Center Rodney Hudson deserves more attention, but he has been stuck behind Maurkice Pouncey in the AFC and has only three Pro Bowls to show across his seven years as a starter with the Chiefs and Raiders. 1. Green. You can't make the Hall of Fame while you're still in pads, but Mike Evans has been making his case over the past six seasons. Only Chandler Jones and Aaron Donald have more sacks since the start of 2017. The list of players who have done that isn't long, as it consists of Lawrence Taylor, Barry Sanders, Emmitt Smith, Patrick Willis, Aaron Donald and Martin. He also came up with an interception while winning his first Super Bowl, which helps his case. Five of the 40 defensive players chosen among the top three picks of the draft since 1970 who are eligible for the Hall are enshrined, a percentage that will rise as players like Julius Peppers and Von Miller eventually become eligible. What will the Buffalo Bills do without defensive coordinator Leslie Frazier? While Witten, 38, is years removed from his peak, he's going to finish his career with 11 Pro Bowl appearances and two first-team All-Pro nods. He has eight Pro Bowl appearances, but he has never been a first-team All-Pro, never really been a viable pick as the best quarterback in football and has a total of four MVP votes across 14 seasons as a starter. But as a running back who has been above average or good seemingly forever, he's getting in. The Hall site draws a distinction, interestingly, between wide receivers and ends. Tight ends have relatively short careers, which makes projecting their Hall chances exceedingly difficult. All logos are the trademark & property of their owners and not Sports Reference LLC. We still have to see what happens with the former LSU star, but of the 24 quarterbacks drafted with the first overall pick since the merger, five are either Hall of Famers or extremely likely to be enshrined. While Pro Bowls and All-Pro awards are hardly gospel, they're the best measure we have of how league observers valued a particular player in his time. Brown was arguably the NFLs best receiver from 2013-18 in Pittsburgh, but wasnt the same player after he left the Steelers. He figures to have a strong case for first-ballot election. It's tough to rack up interceptions in the modern NFL, but Peters has 27 since entering the league, nine more than any other player. On the latest episode of the Let's Go! The Saints have the best tackle combination in football, but Armstead went underappreciated before picking up steam over the past couple of years and Ramczyk raised his game in 2019. Work to do (10% to 39%): OT Terron Armstead, OT Ryan Ramczyk. The Pro Football Reference Hall of Fame Monitor (HOFm) is a metric designed to estimate a player's chances of making the Pro Football Hall of Fame using AV, Pro Bowls, All-Pros, championships, and various stat milestones. The induction process, like so many things, is on hold. Since 1970, 55 players who are eligible for Canton have hit that 8+2 mark, and 52 of them earned enshrinement. He has three first-team All-Pro nods and a Super Bowl MVP before turning 31. Likely (70% to 99%): WR Michael Thomas. Work to do (10% to 39%): QB Jared Goff, OT Andrew Whitworth, P Johnny Hekker. Lock (100%): QB Patrick Mahomes. That might bode well for Suggs case, especially with the premium placed on pass rushers in the modern NFL. Likely (70% to 99%): QB Matt Ryan, WR Julio Jones. Kamara took a step backward last season when he ran into some touchdown regression, but he still did enough to earn his third Pro Bowl appearance in three years. Guy made only one Pro Bowl after turning 30, and Hekker probably needs a couple more All-Pro appearances to earn serious consideration. Watch our How-To Videos to Become a Stathead, Subscribe to Stathead and get access to more data than you can imagine. He looked to be firmly on a Hall trajectory at that point, but over the ensuing five seasons, he has just one Pro Bowl appearance. Most importantly: This is my opinion of who is likely to get in given current rsums, not who belongs in. Every two-time winner got in easily, so while Watt might not have the longevity he hoped for, the Houston icon could retire tomorrow and get in. Work to do (10% to 39%): QB Matthew Stafford, CB Jeff Okudah. In Week 9, he led the league with 180 yards receiving, and for the year, hes No. Roy Williams is the lone Hall-eligible safety who didn't follow his early success to Canton. Harold Carmichael finished his career with 590 receptions and 79 touchdowns. Beasley won a sack title. Likely (70% to 99%): WR Tyreek Hill, TE Travis Kelce. Baker was a first-team All-Pro in 2017 and a two-time Pro Bowler, although his 2017 awards were for special-teams work, which isn't valued as highly by voters. We may be compensated for the links provided on this page. Typically, there are between 45 and 50 Hall of Famers playing at any one time. Of the seven players eligible for the Hall of Fame who made it to the Pro Bowl in their age-21 campaign, six are in the Hall. If he recovers and returns to his 2017-18 form, he still has plenty of time to get back on the Canton track, given that he turned 26 this week. Joe Fortenbaugh breaks down why Julio Jones is the safer bet over DeAndre Hopkins to lead the league in receiving yards. With five consecutive first-team All-Pro appearances, he could retire tomorrow and get in without any questions. He has the third most sacks through his age-25 season of any player since the league made it an official stat in 1982, trailing only Derrick Thomas and J.J. Watt. So this is really a list of 15. Outside of that one year, though, he has three Pro Bowl nods, no first-team All-Pro spots and a 2-5 record in the postseason. Both players are on a streak, and their chances depend on keeping that streak going. The Cowboys are blessed with two linemen bound for Canton. The former Panthers quarterback has two other Pro Bowl nods besides that 2015 season, although he hasn't received a nomination since. I worry a little about Atkins because he plays in a small market and in an era in which he's second fiddle to a better version of the same player (Aaron Donald), but history suggests Atkins is in. Henry plays a Hall-friendly position and just won a rushing title. It was a good weekend for wide receivers at the Pro Football Hall of Fame in Canton, Ohio. Lock (100%): RB Adrian Peterson. A score of 100 is around the average modern-era inductee. Mathieu is a great player and just turned 28, so he still has plenty of time, but he probably needs four or five more Pro Bowl seasons or a DPOY victory to really get in the discussion. 1 with seven receiving touchdowns as well as 1,407 air yards and yards after the catch combined (perAirYards.com). So maybe the best thing for Johnson and Texans fans is to be patient. Likely (70% to 99%): RB Ezekiel Elliott, G Zack Martin, OT Tyron Smith. At the combine, he measured in at 6-foot-5 and 231 pounds and ran an impressive 4.53-second 40-yard dash. Top-10 picks who make it to the Pro Bowl as rookies have a great track record. Cooper has made four Pro Bowls in his first five seasons. Warren Moon played until he was 44. He led that sports section to three Associated Press Sports Editors top-10 national awards and his work has been honored by APSE and the Texas Associated Press Managing Editors. He was nearly a lock after making four Pro Bowls and three first-team All-Pro nods across his first five seasons, but injuries have cost Thomas 20 games over the subsequent four years. If Kelce can earn that nod in 2020, that might be enough to get him in. The 2020 No. McCardell and Smith dubbed "Thunder . First, its hard for young guys to adapt to the NFL. Casey has made five consecutive Pro Bowls, but the Titans were willing to cut him this offseason before trading him for a seventh-round pick, which also seems telling about where they saw his future. Peterson, fifth all-time in rushing yards (14,918), is a good bet for election on the first ballot. Many of the modern-era players to whom hes statistically comparable played well into their 30s. Randy Moss. . Joe Fortenbaugh isn't picking Odell Beckham Jr. to lead the NFL in receiving yards, but he expects Kevin Stefanski's scheme to improve the wide receiver's numbers in 2020. Likely (70% to 99%): CB Richard Sherman. He made it to four Pro Bowls in his first five seasons with the Ravens, and while that's the sort of production we associate with Hall of Famers, he wasn't able to earn a first-team All-Pro nod over that stretch. Future Hall of Fame wide receiver Larry Fitzgerald, though, has a different team in mind for Rodgers. As I mentioned with Prescott, Barkley's Offensive Rookie of the Year nod gets him in this category alone. I think Patrick Willis is going to make it in after an eight-year career in which he racked up seven Pro Bowl appearances and five first-team All-Pro nods and retired as he turned 30. Likely (70% to 99%): WR DeAndre Hopkins, CB Patrick Peterson. Thielen only emerged as a starter after turning 26, which means he would have to play into his late 30s to have a chance at racking up the cumulative stats modern wide receivers will need for enshrinement. The Defensive Player of the Year candidate was named a first-team All-Pro in 2015 and 2019, but he hasn't received any other nominations across his other five pro seasons. He has now made three consecutive Pro Bowls, although his only first-team All-Pro nod came in 2017. Eagles fans will be furious, but the reality is that Wentz has made one Pro Bowl and hasn't won a playoff game or led the league in a major statistical category (outside of fumbles) during his first four seasons. This trio is. Given the ages of Gilmore and Patrick Peterson, Ramsey is neck-and-neck with White and Marshon Lattimore as the likely best cornerback in football over the next five years. In the running (40% to 69%): RB Saquon Barkley. Meanwhile, Johnson spent the first 12 years of his career with the expansion Texans, who didnt make the playoffs until his ninth season with quarterback play that ran the gamut from dreadful to above average. Winning an MVP in Year 2 obviously leaps Jackson into consideration on its own, but it doesn't seal it. I believe Evans will be in the NFL Hall of Fame someday, and in this piece I hit on a few of the reasons for my position. 2 pick was a four-time Pro Bowler and a three-time All-Pro during his five seasons in Detroit. Work to do (10% to 39%): DE DeMarcus Lawrence, DT Gerald McCoy, LB Leighton Vander Esch. I'd like to see a bigger sample before I treat that rate as gospel, and players such as DeAngelo Hall and Everson Walls had long careers without making it to the Hall, but Lattimore is off to a promising start. Assessing Browns' FA needs. Art Monk. I would put Gronkowski's chance somewhere around 99%. He just turned 26 in August. Last season, Thomas became the second wide receiver to win Offensive Player of the Year. The future of Tampa Bay's tight end room. Elliott has already won two rushing titles across his first four seasons, and that might be enough on its own. Five seasons of 100 receptions or more plus a few others that flirted with 100 make Johnson one of the most reliable wide receivers in NFL history. Tucker is only nine years in, and while he can kick for a long time if he stays healthy, asking anyone in the NFL to do anything for 13 more seasons is risky. Pro Football WR Hall of Fame Monitor The Pro Football Reference Hall of Fame Monitor (HOFm) is a metric designed to estimate a player's chances of making the Pro Football Hall of Fame using AV, Pro Bowls, All-Pros, championships, and various stat milestones. Itll be interesting to see if his postseason prowess carries him, as it arguably did Lynn Swann in his eventual election. Not knowing anything else about Burrow beyond where and when he was drafted, his Hall of Fame chances before starting his career come in by that small sample around 20%. Tickets go on sale on Wednesday, September 1st at: www.radiohalloffame.com. He's in line behind guys like Atkins unless the USC product continues to make Pro Bowls deep into his 30s. Lock (100%): QB Aaron Rodgers. He also earned two major awards: Defensive Rookie of the Year and Defensive Player of the Year the following season. While injuries have cost Watt 32 games over the past four seasons, his unprecedented four-season peak from 2012 to 2015 locked up things. Ranking NFL offensive weapons The three have career numbers that are comparable, and Holt and Wayne had the good fortune of playing with Hall of Fame quarterbacks (Kurt Warner and Peyton Manning) while winning Super Bowls. Larry Fitzgerald Says Aaron Rodgers Should Play for the Dallas Cowboys Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers (12) hands off. Hekker's case is interesting. Hester was a (great) returner, which typically doesn't inspire the same sort of fervor as other All-Pro nods, while Jackson actually started with three consecutive All-Pro nods before dropping off and retiring after nine years. Roethlisberger won two Super Bowls with the Steelers and spent 18 seasons as Pittsburghs starter. Over that five-year span, Landry ranks third in the NFL in catches and seventh in receiving yards. Even if he slows down from here on out, Miller's going to the Hall. Bosa won Defensive Rookie of the Year, which hasn't been quite as big of a boon as you might think. Newton has an MVP award, which goes a long way toward pushing any player into the Hall of Fame. Stafford posted gaudy numbers earlier in his career when the Lions had him lead the league in attempts, but he has made it to one Pro Bowl and hasn't won a playoff game in 11 seasons. Edelman has never made a Pro Bowl, but the only player with more receiving yards in the playoffs is Jerry Rice. March 25, 2020 9:36 pm ET. Hill's game still relies on speed, so he could be more susceptible to a career shortened by injuries than most other candidates, but if he gets three more seasons with Mahomes, he's probably in. Jets, Browns tapped for 2023 NFL Hall of Fame Game originally appeared on NBC Sports Chicago. Jaguars won't spend big, but here are five players they could target in free agency, 2023 NFL franchise tag tracker: Raiders tag Josh Jacobs, the NFL's rushing leader. Only two full-time kickers Jan Stenerud and Morten Andersen are in the Hall of Fame, but it would be hard to see Vinatieri shut out given his accomplishments. Greg Rajan is the senior editor for Texas Sports Nation, the Houston Chronicle's sports website, and also curates the daily TXSN newsletter and writes about sports media. He has made four Pro Bowls and was a first-team All-Pro in 2012, but there are just too many offensive linemen with more impressive rsums who have struggled to get in for Brown to have much of a chance.
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